I think you're right. Even if DW were more intuitive to Tumblr users, or offered so many ways to interact in a low-key manner (likes, reblogs, tag meta), the larger technical issues are... larger technical issues than are likely to be solved in a timeframe that will make people want to stay here longterm, given that it's been a decade and, for very good reasons, we still don't have an app, or the ability to tag usernames in a way that generates notifications.

I love Dreamwidth, and if I'm honest I've always resented that fandom moved en masse to Tumblr (even though I spent a lot of time there myself and loved the very specific fannish culture and humour that it generated), but I can see now that I can't expect people go go back to web 1.0. Hopefully people can at least use DW to get some fannish content and interaction, and to keep in touch with one another until we see what's next.