And after us the flood
Jun. 8th, 2023 08:59 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dolorosa_12This post requires a content note for just about every horrible consequence you can imagine — to people, animals, land, homes, and livelihoods — resulting from the combined effects of war, occupation, and man-made 'natural' disaster. Please take that into account before reading behind the cut.
Nova Kakhovka is a city in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine. It was occupied by Russian troops in the early days of the fullscale invasion last February, and has remained occupied ever since. Some other parts of the Kherson region (including the regional capital, Kherson city) were liberated by Ukraine in November last year, but Nova Kakhovka was not, as it is on the south-eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and crossing the river was too difficult and risky for the Ukrainian military at that point.
Nova Kakhovka was also the site of a large hydro-electric power plant and vast dam and reservoir, built in the 1950s during Soviet times. The water and energy from this plant and reservoir supplied the populations of four Ukrainian regions (two partially occupied, two free from occupation), as well as Crimea (occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014).
Early on Tuesday morning, the dam either collapsed or blew up.I have seen evidence that convinces me that Russia either deliberately blew up the dam, or through a combination of deliberate and careless neglect, caused its condition to deteriorate to such an extent that it collapsed. I'm not an engineer, and I make no further assertions as to which event took place, but it is clear to me that either way, the dam would still exist if not for the fact of the war, occupation, and control of the dam by Russian troops and occupation 'authorities'. Updated to add that as of Saturday 10th June, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that Russia deliberately blew up the dam. At the time of writing the original post, there was still some doubt as to whether the dam had been blown up or collapsed, but even then there was no doubt that in either case, Russia was responsible — either by deliberately blowing up the dam, or neglecting its maintenance — and no doubt that Ukraine was not responsible. Now the cause of the dam's destruction is pretty clear.
The results have been horrific and catastrophic. A vast region was flooded within hours, and will remain flooded for several weeks. I've seen harrowing footage of people trapped on the roofs of their houses, or in the higher stories of apartment buildings, volunteers in dinghies rescuing very frail elderly and disabled people, and very distressed animals. Rescue attempts are impeded by the Russian military continuing to shell the area with artillery, and in the occupied south-eastern bank of the Dnipro, occupation 'authorities' have made no attempt to rescue trapped people, and indeed have prevented civilians from doing the same. International organisations such as the Red Cross and UN are either unwilling or unable to help in the occupied areas. In the longer term, this region was largely agricultural, responsible for a lot of Ukraine's exports of grain and other agricultural products. The flooding is likely to seriously damage the land to the extent that reliable crops are no longer possible, with knock-on effects to Ukraine's economy, global food prices, and food security. There is also likely to be large scale ecological damage — I've seen footage of mass quantities of fish washed up, there is petrol, chemicals, sewage and other waste in the floodwaters, which have also destroyed cemeteries, meaning the water is potentially hazardous to those exposed to it. Upstream, tributary rivers are now running backwards, there is the threat to water supplies that I previously mentioned, and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe, also occupied by Russian troops since the start of the full-scale war) relied on water from the reservoir and is now in an even more unstable situation.
Some Russian troops initially posted gloating videos about the destruction of the dam and vowed to undertake further similar actions. The occupation 'authorities' in Nova Kakhovka initially claimed nothing had happened and everything was 'normal'. Russian state propaganda for external consumption immediately blamed Ukraine and started trying to muddy the waters, while Russian state propaganda for domestic audiences essentially admitted they were responsible. I've seen propaganda interspersing footage of jubilant Ukrainian civilians in Kherson greeting the Ukrainian military as liberators with footage of the floods, as if to say that because they refused to accept Russian occupation and annexation, these are the consequences, which is such staggeringly evil abuser logic ('if I can't have you, no one will') that I had to lie down and stare at a wall for a while to calm down. Twitter has, of course, been an absolute cesspit, awash with conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
For obvious reasons, the Ukrainian state is struggling to cope with all this. To top things off, this coincided (after a winter and spring in which the Ukrainian military was building up supplies of equipment, training troops, and planning for a large scale operation to reclaim much of its occupied territory) with the start of Ukrainian offensive military operations, which were as of Monday achieving steady success by all accounts. (This is just one reason why theories that Ukraine blew up the dam are ludicrous — advancing armies do not blow up dams that are in front of them; retreating armies do, if they think it will impede their opponent's advance.) The floods complicate this (although by all accounts the possibility of this happening were factored into planning), and they also divert military and government resources into aiding with the evacuation and relief efforts.
I hope by laying this out, I've given a clear enough picture of the situation. Although I didn't link to any external sources, everything I've said is based on information that I have verified externally, or is at least clearly indicated to be speculation and theorising.
If you've seen my posts on Ukraine and other political topics, you'll know that I don't feel awareness-raising is a sufficiently helpful act — all I've done is pull together information that is available from a number of Western and English-language Ukrainian media, government, and non-profit organisations. If you've read this far and feel that it's important you help in some concrete, tangible way, there are several things I'd recommend.
If you live in the EU, EEA (I'm not sure about Switzerland though), the UK, the United States, and Canada (and possibly Australia, Japan, South Korea, although I'm not a hundred per cent certain of this), your government, or the EU, has frozen huge amounts of funds as part of sanctions against Russian individuals and entities responsible for or otherwise helping with the war. Although it is legally difficult, there have been some efforts to free up this money and use it to fund Ukraine's reconstruction. I would ask people who live in these countries (and possibly others, as I say, I haven't had time to check every country's sanctions activities; the ones I've listed are just the ones I know about) to contact their political representatives and ask them to speed up efforts to make this happen. I will be doing so after this writing this post (although my MP just replied to me about a previous email about Ukraine, so I'm going to continue being a massive nuisance to her).
If you feel you would like to donate to organisations helping with this catastrophe, I would mainly recommend Ukrainian ones rather than large international organisations, which have mostly been ... not great. As always, be cautious when donating your money, and don't just take my word for it: research something to make sure you are comfortable making a donation. Those listed are organisations I have either previously donated to myself, or would feel comfortable doing so in the future, but please research them for yourselves.
United 24: the main Ukrainian government fundraiser. You can specify when donating here whether your money goes towards military, humanitarian, or rebuilding aid, andI would assume much donated to the latter two purposes will go towards flood relief right now has the option to donate specifically for flood relief (thanks for alerting me to this, muccamukk)
Razom for Ukraine: provides aid to help with the evacuation effort, including helping emergency services, providing water and hygiene supplies, and housing for those affected by the floods
UAnimals: provides aid for animals affected by the war, including the flooding, evacuating animals from the frontline (and the floods), and paying for medication, food and shelter
If you prefer to fund an international organisation, the two I've seen praised as effective by Ukrainians are Legacy of War Foundation, which works collaboratively with civilians in conflict zones to help with both urgent daily needs, and rebuilding efforts, and World Central Kitchen, which again works with local people in disaster and conflict zones to provide food for those in need.
The whole thing is just staggering in its overwhelming evil. We can't stop the floodwaters, but there are tiny things we can do to stem the tide.
Nova Kakhovka is a city in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine. It was occupied by Russian troops in the early days of the fullscale invasion last February, and has remained occupied ever since. Some other parts of the Kherson region (including the regional capital, Kherson city) were liberated by Ukraine in November last year, but Nova Kakhovka was not, as it is on the south-eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and crossing the river was too difficult and risky for the Ukrainian military at that point.
Nova Kakhovka was also the site of a large hydro-electric power plant and vast dam and reservoir, built in the 1950s during Soviet times. The water and energy from this plant and reservoir supplied the populations of four Ukrainian regions (two partially occupied, two free from occupation), as well as Crimea (occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014).
Early on Tuesday morning, the dam either collapsed or blew up.
The results have been horrific and catastrophic. A vast region was flooded within hours, and will remain flooded for several weeks. I've seen harrowing footage of people trapped on the roofs of their houses, or in the higher stories of apartment buildings, volunteers in dinghies rescuing very frail elderly and disabled people, and very distressed animals. Rescue attempts are impeded by the Russian military continuing to shell the area with artillery, and in the occupied south-eastern bank of the Dnipro, occupation 'authorities' have made no attempt to rescue trapped people, and indeed have prevented civilians from doing the same. International organisations such as the Red Cross and UN are either unwilling or unable to help in the occupied areas. In the longer term, this region was largely agricultural, responsible for a lot of Ukraine's exports of grain and other agricultural products. The flooding is likely to seriously damage the land to the extent that reliable crops are no longer possible, with knock-on effects to Ukraine's economy, global food prices, and food security. There is also likely to be large scale ecological damage — I've seen footage of mass quantities of fish washed up, there is petrol, chemicals, sewage and other waste in the floodwaters, which have also destroyed cemeteries, meaning the water is potentially hazardous to those exposed to it. Upstream, tributary rivers are now running backwards, there is the threat to water supplies that I previously mentioned, and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe, also occupied by Russian troops since the start of the full-scale war) relied on water from the reservoir and is now in an even more unstable situation.
Some Russian troops initially posted gloating videos about the destruction of the dam and vowed to undertake further similar actions. The occupation 'authorities' in Nova Kakhovka initially claimed nothing had happened and everything was 'normal'. Russian state propaganda for external consumption immediately blamed Ukraine and started trying to muddy the waters, while Russian state propaganda for domestic audiences essentially admitted they were responsible. I've seen propaganda interspersing footage of jubilant Ukrainian civilians in Kherson greeting the Ukrainian military as liberators with footage of the floods, as if to say that because they refused to accept Russian occupation and annexation, these are the consequences, which is such staggeringly evil abuser logic ('if I can't have you, no one will') that I had to lie down and stare at a wall for a while to calm down. Twitter has, of course, been an absolute cesspit, awash with conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
For obvious reasons, the Ukrainian state is struggling to cope with all this. To top things off, this coincided (after a winter and spring in which the Ukrainian military was building up supplies of equipment, training troops, and planning for a large scale operation to reclaim much of its occupied territory) with the start of Ukrainian offensive military operations, which were as of Monday achieving steady success by all accounts. (This is just one reason why theories that Ukraine blew up the dam are ludicrous — advancing armies do not blow up dams that are in front of them; retreating armies do, if they think it will impede their opponent's advance.) The floods complicate this (although by all accounts the possibility of this happening were factored into planning), and they also divert military and government resources into aiding with the evacuation and relief efforts.
I hope by laying this out, I've given a clear enough picture of the situation. Although I didn't link to any external sources, everything I've said is based on information that I have verified externally, or is at least clearly indicated to be speculation and theorising.
If you've seen my posts on Ukraine and other political topics, you'll know that I don't feel awareness-raising is a sufficiently helpful act — all I've done is pull together information that is available from a number of Western and English-language Ukrainian media, government, and non-profit organisations. If you've read this far and feel that it's important you help in some concrete, tangible way, there are several things I'd recommend.
If you live in the EU, EEA (I'm not sure about Switzerland though), the UK, the United States, and Canada (and possibly Australia, Japan, South Korea, although I'm not a hundred per cent certain of this), your government, or the EU, has frozen huge amounts of funds as part of sanctions against Russian individuals and entities responsible for or otherwise helping with the war. Although it is legally difficult, there have been some efforts to free up this money and use it to fund Ukraine's reconstruction. I would ask people who live in these countries (and possibly others, as I say, I haven't had time to check every country's sanctions activities; the ones I've listed are just the ones I know about) to contact their political representatives and ask them to speed up efforts to make this happen. I will be doing so after this writing this post (although my MP just replied to me about a previous email about Ukraine, so I'm going to continue being a massive nuisance to her).
If you feel you would like to donate to organisations helping with this catastrophe, I would mainly recommend Ukrainian ones rather than large international organisations, which have mostly been ... not great. As always, be cautious when donating your money, and don't just take my word for it: research something to make sure you are comfortable making a donation. Those listed are organisations I have either previously donated to myself, or would feel comfortable doing so in the future, but please research them for yourselves.
United 24: the main Ukrainian government fundraiser. You can specify when donating here whether your money goes towards military, humanitarian, or rebuilding aid, and
muccamukk) Razom for Ukraine: provides aid to help with the evacuation effort, including helping emergency services, providing water and hygiene supplies, and housing for those affected by the floods
UAnimals: provides aid for animals affected by the war, including the flooding, evacuating animals from the frontline (and the floods), and paying for medication, food and shelter
If you prefer to fund an international organisation, the two I've seen praised as effective by Ukrainians are Legacy of War Foundation, which works collaboratively with civilians in conflict zones to help with both urgent daily needs, and rebuilding efforts, and World Central Kitchen, which again works with local people in disaster and conflict zones to provide food for those in need.
The whole thing is just staggering in its overwhelming evil. We can't stop the floodwaters, but there are tiny things we can do to stem the tide.
no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 10:48 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 05:08 pm (UTC)I'm in the UK, so not all that close — I'm about as far west as it's possible to be from Ukraine while still being in Europe — but certainly the war does feel much closer to home, and its result much more likely to have noticeable consequences for those of us living in Europe, than perhaps it feels from further away.
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Date: 2023-06-08 11:39 am (UTC)no subject
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Date: 2023-06-08 05:10 pm (UTC)no subject
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Date: 2023-06-08 05:11 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 06:13 pm (UTC)Ukraine was warning the world about the dam possibly being detonated since autumn, and Russians also let the water levels get to record high before blowing the dam. So I am like 99.9% it was Russia and tbh Western media going all "Russia claims it was Ukraine, Ukraine claims it was Russia" is actually disgusting to me. Russia always accuses Ukraine of doing what it does itself.
But! Thank you for highlighting charities. I also recommend using those. We had a scandal here recently where a local org with Ukrainian ties turned out to have been stealing money on both sides, and it was really bad. There are some people who help personally as well, I follow them on Facebook and have donated sometimes too. But I do recommend using the Ukrainian ones. And no Red Cross or Amnesty International, they can't be trusted.
I'll see if there's an initiative in Estonia about diverting the frozen funds, and thank you again for keeping your attention on it. A lot of people are tired and it's understandable, if it's not in your direct backyard, it can be hard to care.
PS. I actually read your warning and was like "oh, but this is just life now, we need a warning" but then I realised not everyone has been inhaling news and blogs daily since Feb 2022. Oops!
no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 07:39 pm (UTC)https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1666823028666429446
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Date: 2023-06-08 10:17 pm (UTC)!!! I just, good lord, I am actually speechless!
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Date: 2023-06-09 03:12 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 08:30 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 09:33 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-10 11:43 am (UTC)Oh, I can only imagine how incredibly traumatic this whole thing has been to witness by people in countries previously colonised by Russia during Soviet times, or in central and eastern Europe, with the secondary trauma of having spent years warning about exactly this kind of war and the dangers of appeasement and economic entanglement with Russia, and being dismissed as hysterical. You're absolutely right that the Baltic countries, and probably Moldova, would have been subjected to the same treatment, if not for the incredible sacrifice and resistance shown by Ukraine. I personally find it traumatic to watch them having to do all the fighting and dying alone (with, yes, military and financial support, that they had to fight and beg and bleed to be given), and I'm an Australian who lives in a western European NATO country that has nuclear weapons — about as far away from the threat as it is possible to be while still being in Europe.
But it's been made clear we're not in posthistory and won't be until the Russian Federation either breaks apart or changes radically. I think the first is likelier to happen due to how racist and colonialist the government is, but that's something most of the West doesn't want to happen, just like they didn't want the USSR to break down even though a lot of it was occupied and repressed territory.
Yep, you're right about all this, and the sad thing is that a broken apart or radically changed Russian Federation would make things safer and better for all of Europe, and reduce the risk of having to go through all this again (with, in addition to the obvious horrific human cost, the effects on the economy, global food security, having to allocate money and equipment to support Ukraine militarily and economically) in the near future.
So I am like 99.9% it was Russia and tbh Western media going all "Russia claims it was Ukraine, Ukraine claims it was Russia" is actually disgusting to me. Russia always accuses Ukraine of doing what it does itself.
Yes, I agree with you, and I hope I made that clear in my original post. When I wrote it, there was doubt as to whether Russia had deliberately caused the collapse of the dam by blowing it up, or deliberately caused it by neglecting its maintenance, but no serious person thought Ukraine had done it. (It made zero sense for them to do it, for a long list of reasons. It made a lot of sense for Russia to do it, again for a long list of reasons.) Now, the evidence is overwhelming that Russia blew it up, and I have updated my post accordingly.
I think a lot of the problem with people being susceptible to Russian propaganda and disinfo lies in the fact that they never push a single line — they just flood the world with lots of competing nonsense theories so that people with little knowledge of the situation lose the ability to wade through it all and find the truth. I also think it's a huge problem that most people in the West lapping this nonsense up don't speak Russian, and don't seem to be aware that Russian propaganda put out in English for external audiences differs a huge amount from Russian propaganda in Russian on state TV aimed at internal Russian audiences. The latter is genocidal and gloating in destruction, but unless you understand Russian or seek out people who translate it (such as those highlighted by
We had a scandal here recently where a local org with Ukrainian ties turned out to have been stealing money on both sides, and it was really bad.
I heard about that when it happened — it was awful! That's why I always tell people not to blindly share lists of charities on social media, but only donate after investigating, and only promote organisations that they personally are comfortable donating to. I've donated to similar small volunteer groups that I found on Instagram through people I know personally, but I feel it's better to be cautious when asking others to donate and only highlighting larger initiatives recommended by Ukrainians.
I'll see if there's an initiative in Estonia about diverting the frozen funds, and thank you again for keeping your attention on it. A lot of people are tired and it's understandable, if it's not in your direct backyard, it can be hard to care.
In Estonia this will have been done as an EU-wide initiative, and I don't think it's the sort of thing individual EU countries can decide about on their own, so it may be worth contacting MEPs as well as Estonian national government representatives. As far as I understand, it's extremely complicated legally to free up these funds, but hopefully with more people pushing, politicians will find the will to do so.
I actually read your warning and was like "oh, but this is just life now, we need a warning" but then I realised not everyone has been inhaling news and blogs daily since Feb 2022.
This is me too, but I know from my everyday life that I'm pretty much the only person I know whose entire life has been swallowed up in following and supporting Ukraine's existential fight for survival, and the consequences of the dam's destruction are truly some of the most evil things I've ever seen, so the warning is definitely necessary.
no subject
Date: 2023-06-11 02:04 pm (UTC)I appreciate you updating the post, I just see a lot of really skeevy "but maybe Ukraine did it" sort of rhetoric around and it's enraging bc these people would never say it about a country they consider Western or acceptable. But since it's an Eastern European country, it's "okay" to say it.
And yeah, Russian propaganda is its own special breed, even the anti-Putin stuff. For example, Navalny is touted as this hope for democratic Russia and like...the man is as racist and colonialist as Putin is. He thinks Crimea is Russia. Make it make sense that the West simps for him and his team and whatever that stupid documentary was.
I'll drop a link here: https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120083694/human-life-has-no-value-there-baltic-counterintelligence-officers-speak-candidly-about-russian-cruelty
One of the Estonian papers interviewed the leaders of Baltic intelligence agencies about what it's like to have Russia as an enemy. I am not going to say that as an Estonian anything surprised me in there but I feel it's an important article and I am really glad they translated it.
Yeah, the Slava Ukraini NGO thing was super embarrassing and awful, basically the woman spearheading it turned out to have been scamming in the past (the person scammed was willing to be silent if she returned the money), and she got awards and was even voted into Parliament before it all came crashing down. I thought it was a Russian info-op at first since the whistleblower also revealed the lady possibly had been having a relationship with the Ukrainian man who was scamming on the Ukrainian side. But then more info came out and someone else who had also been involved with the NGO on the Estonian said says he knows the whistleblower and believes him, and they're still investigating. Big mess.
Yeah, the funds thing is definitely complicated and it's not like Estonia hasn't been pushing for every anti-Russian measure here is. It's the worst sort of vindication to be like "we were right all along". But at least the last year's events have made it clear I have no reason to be ashamed to be Eastern European. Before all this, me and loads of people in Estonia used to go "well we're sort of Nordicish since we're kind of related to Finland" and so on and so forth. But no more. :D
Yep, warnings are good. There's stuff I've encountered without warning and...oof.
no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 07:31 pm (UTC)I heartily second those charities, they are all good as reported by the actual Ukrainians.
Meanwhile Russia is doing everything it can to kill as many people as possible: https://twitter.com/francisjfarrell/status/1666780216545484802
(And they are laughing about it).
no subject
Date: 2023-06-08 10:21 pm (UTC)*goes off to scream at things*
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Date: 2023-06-09 01:24 am (UTC)I particularly recommend linking people to state TV translations, because I don't think it's possible to understand the depths of depravity without actually hearing it "from the horse's mouth" so to speak (and in the case of Lavrov...). You can generally get a whole bunch of "let's turn Berlin into ash", recruit people for terrorism in western cities, and similar rhethoric on there.
Maybe these snippets only help one person to understand what we're all dealing with but it's still a win:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594408064337301504
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1666355640875319297
In the meantime, sending hugs... and donations to charities.
no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 08:28 pm (UTC)hugs!
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Date: 2023-06-10 11:51 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-10 11:46 am (UTC)Meanwhile Russia is doing everything it can to kill as many people as possible
I saw that — I follow
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Date: 2023-06-08 08:26 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-10 11:14 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 12:25 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-10 11:14 am (UTC)