And after us the flood
Jun. 8th, 2023 08:59 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
dolorosa_12This post requires a content note for just about every horrible consequence you can imagine — to people, animals, land, homes, and livelihoods — resulting from the combined effects of war, occupation, and man-made 'natural' disaster. Please take that into account before reading behind the cut.
Nova Kakhovka is a city in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine. It was occupied by Russian troops in the early days of the fullscale invasion last February, and has remained occupied ever since. Some other parts of the Kherson region (including the regional capital, Kherson city) were liberated by Ukraine in November last year, but Nova Kakhovka was not, as it is on the south-eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and crossing the river was too difficult and risky for the Ukrainian military at that point.
Nova Kakhovka was also the site of a large hydro-electric power plant and vast dam and reservoir, built in the 1950s during Soviet times. The water and energy from this plant and reservoir supplied the populations of four Ukrainian regions (two partially occupied, two free from occupation), as well as Crimea (occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014).
Early on Tuesday morning, the dam either collapsed or blew up.I have seen evidence that convinces me that Russia either deliberately blew up the dam, or through a combination of deliberate and careless neglect, caused its condition to deteriorate to such an extent that it collapsed. I'm not an engineer, and I make no further assertions as to which event took place, but it is clear to me that either way, the dam would still exist if not for the fact of the war, occupation, and control of the dam by Russian troops and occupation 'authorities'. Updated to add that as of Saturday 10th June, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that Russia deliberately blew up the dam. At the time of writing the original post, there was still some doubt as to whether the dam had been blown up or collapsed, but even then there was no doubt that in either case, Russia was responsible — either by deliberately blowing up the dam, or neglecting its maintenance — and no doubt that Ukraine was not responsible. Now the cause of the dam's destruction is pretty clear.
The results have been horrific and catastrophic. A vast region was flooded within hours, and will remain flooded for several weeks. I've seen harrowing footage of people trapped on the roofs of their houses, or in the higher stories of apartment buildings, volunteers in dinghies rescuing very frail elderly and disabled people, and very distressed animals. Rescue attempts are impeded by the Russian military continuing to shell the area with artillery, and in the occupied south-eastern bank of the Dnipro, occupation 'authorities' have made no attempt to rescue trapped people, and indeed have prevented civilians from doing the same. International organisations such as the Red Cross and UN are either unwilling or unable to help in the occupied areas. In the longer term, this region was largely agricultural, responsible for a lot of Ukraine's exports of grain and other agricultural products. The flooding is likely to seriously damage the land to the extent that reliable crops are no longer possible, with knock-on effects to Ukraine's economy, global food prices, and food security. There is also likely to be large scale ecological damage — I've seen footage of mass quantities of fish washed up, there is petrol, chemicals, sewage and other waste in the floodwaters, which have also destroyed cemeteries, meaning the water is potentially hazardous to those exposed to it. Upstream, tributary rivers are now running backwards, there is the threat to water supplies that I previously mentioned, and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe, also occupied by Russian troops since the start of the full-scale war) relied on water from the reservoir and is now in an even more unstable situation.
Some Russian troops initially posted gloating videos about the destruction of the dam and vowed to undertake further similar actions. The occupation 'authorities' in Nova Kakhovka initially claimed nothing had happened and everything was 'normal'. Russian state propaganda for external consumption immediately blamed Ukraine and started trying to muddy the waters, while Russian state propaganda for domestic audiences essentially admitted they were responsible. I've seen propaganda interspersing footage of jubilant Ukrainian civilians in Kherson greeting the Ukrainian military as liberators with footage of the floods, as if to say that because they refused to accept Russian occupation and annexation, these are the consequences, which is such staggeringly evil abuser logic ('if I can't have you, no one will') that I had to lie down and stare at a wall for a while to calm down. Twitter has, of course, been an absolute cesspit, awash with conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
For obvious reasons, the Ukrainian state is struggling to cope with all this. To top things off, this coincided (after a winter and spring in which the Ukrainian military was building up supplies of equipment, training troops, and planning for a large scale operation to reclaim much of its occupied territory) with the start of Ukrainian offensive military operations, which were as of Monday achieving steady success by all accounts. (This is just one reason why theories that Ukraine blew up the dam are ludicrous — advancing armies do not blow up dams that are in front of them; retreating armies do, if they think it will impede their opponent's advance.) The floods complicate this (although by all accounts the possibility of this happening were factored into planning), and they also divert military and government resources into aiding with the evacuation and relief efforts.
I hope by laying this out, I've given a clear enough picture of the situation. Although I didn't link to any external sources, everything I've said is based on information that I have verified externally, or is at least clearly indicated to be speculation and theorising.
If you've seen my posts on Ukraine and other political topics, you'll know that I don't feel awareness-raising is a sufficiently helpful act — all I've done is pull together information that is available from a number of Western and English-language Ukrainian media, government, and non-profit organisations. If you've read this far and feel that it's important you help in some concrete, tangible way, there are several things I'd recommend.
If you live in the EU, EEA (I'm not sure about Switzerland though), the UK, the United States, and Canada (and possibly Australia, Japan, South Korea, although I'm not a hundred per cent certain of this), your government, or the EU, has frozen huge amounts of funds as part of sanctions against Russian individuals and entities responsible for or otherwise helping with the war. Although it is legally difficult, there have been some efforts to free up this money and use it to fund Ukraine's reconstruction. I would ask people who live in these countries (and possibly others, as I say, I haven't had time to check every country's sanctions activities; the ones I've listed are just the ones I know about) to contact their political representatives and ask them to speed up efforts to make this happen. I will be doing so after this writing this post (although my MP just replied to me about a previous email about Ukraine, so I'm going to continue being a massive nuisance to her).
If you feel you would like to donate to organisations helping with this catastrophe, I would mainly recommend Ukrainian ones rather than large international organisations, which have mostly been ... not great. As always, be cautious when donating your money, and don't just take my word for it: research something to make sure you are comfortable making a donation. Those listed are organisations I have either previously donated to myself, or would feel comfortable doing so in the future, but please research them for yourselves.
United 24: the main Ukrainian government fundraiser. You can specify when donating here whether your money goes towards military, humanitarian, or rebuilding aid, andI would assume much donated to the latter two purposes will go towards flood relief right now has the option to donate specifically for flood relief (thanks for alerting me to this, muccamukk)
Razom for Ukraine: provides aid to help with the evacuation effort, including helping emergency services, providing water and hygiene supplies, and housing for those affected by the floods
UAnimals: provides aid for animals affected by the war, including the flooding, evacuating animals from the frontline (and the floods), and paying for medication, food and shelter
If you prefer to fund an international organisation, the two I've seen praised as effective by Ukrainians are Legacy of War Foundation, which works collaboratively with civilians in conflict zones to help with both urgent daily needs, and rebuilding efforts, and World Central Kitchen, which again works with local people in disaster and conflict zones to provide food for those in need.
The whole thing is just staggering in its overwhelming evil. We can't stop the floodwaters, but there are tiny things we can do to stem the tide.
Nova Kakhovka is a city in the southern Kherson region of Ukraine. It was occupied by Russian troops in the early days of the fullscale invasion last February, and has remained occupied ever since. Some other parts of the Kherson region (including the regional capital, Kherson city) were liberated by Ukraine in November last year, but Nova Kakhovka was not, as it is on the south-eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and crossing the river was too difficult and risky for the Ukrainian military at that point.
Nova Kakhovka was also the site of a large hydro-electric power plant and vast dam and reservoir, built in the 1950s during Soviet times. The water and energy from this plant and reservoir supplied the populations of four Ukrainian regions (two partially occupied, two free from occupation), as well as Crimea (occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014).
Early on Tuesday morning, the dam either collapsed or blew up.
The results have been horrific and catastrophic. A vast region was flooded within hours, and will remain flooded for several weeks. I've seen harrowing footage of people trapped on the roofs of their houses, or in the higher stories of apartment buildings, volunteers in dinghies rescuing very frail elderly and disabled people, and very distressed animals. Rescue attempts are impeded by the Russian military continuing to shell the area with artillery, and in the occupied south-eastern bank of the Dnipro, occupation 'authorities' have made no attempt to rescue trapped people, and indeed have prevented civilians from doing the same. International organisations such as the Red Cross and UN are either unwilling or unable to help in the occupied areas. In the longer term, this region was largely agricultural, responsible for a lot of Ukraine's exports of grain and other agricultural products. The flooding is likely to seriously damage the land to the extent that reliable crops are no longer possible, with knock-on effects to Ukraine's economy, global food prices, and food security. There is also likely to be large scale ecological damage — I've seen footage of mass quantities of fish washed up, there is petrol, chemicals, sewage and other waste in the floodwaters, which have also destroyed cemeteries, meaning the water is potentially hazardous to those exposed to it. Upstream, tributary rivers are now running backwards, there is the threat to water supplies that I previously mentioned, and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe, also occupied by Russian troops since the start of the full-scale war) relied on water from the reservoir and is now in an even more unstable situation.
Some Russian troops initially posted gloating videos about the destruction of the dam and vowed to undertake further similar actions. The occupation 'authorities' in Nova Kakhovka initially claimed nothing had happened and everything was 'normal'. Russian state propaganda for external consumption immediately blamed Ukraine and started trying to muddy the waters, while Russian state propaganda for domestic audiences essentially admitted they were responsible. I've seen propaganda interspersing footage of jubilant Ukrainian civilians in Kherson greeting the Ukrainian military as liberators with footage of the floods, as if to say that because they refused to accept Russian occupation and annexation, these are the consequences, which is such staggeringly evil abuser logic ('if I can't have you, no one will') that I had to lie down and stare at a wall for a while to calm down. Twitter has, of course, been an absolute cesspit, awash with conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
For obvious reasons, the Ukrainian state is struggling to cope with all this. To top things off, this coincided (after a winter and spring in which the Ukrainian military was building up supplies of equipment, training troops, and planning for a large scale operation to reclaim much of its occupied territory) with the start of Ukrainian offensive military operations, which were as of Monday achieving steady success by all accounts. (This is just one reason why theories that Ukraine blew up the dam are ludicrous — advancing armies do not blow up dams that are in front of them; retreating armies do, if they think it will impede their opponent's advance.) The floods complicate this (although by all accounts the possibility of this happening were factored into planning), and they also divert military and government resources into aiding with the evacuation and relief efforts.
I hope by laying this out, I've given a clear enough picture of the situation. Although I didn't link to any external sources, everything I've said is based on information that I have verified externally, or is at least clearly indicated to be speculation and theorising.
If you've seen my posts on Ukraine and other political topics, you'll know that I don't feel awareness-raising is a sufficiently helpful act — all I've done is pull together information that is available from a number of Western and English-language Ukrainian media, government, and non-profit organisations. If you've read this far and feel that it's important you help in some concrete, tangible way, there are several things I'd recommend.
If you live in the EU, EEA (I'm not sure about Switzerland though), the UK, the United States, and Canada (and possibly Australia, Japan, South Korea, although I'm not a hundred per cent certain of this), your government, or the EU, has frozen huge amounts of funds as part of sanctions against Russian individuals and entities responsible for or otherwise helping with the war. Although it is legally difficult, there have been some efforts to free up this money and use it to fund Ukraine's reconstruction. I would ask people who live in these countries (and possibly others, as I say, I haven't had time to check every country's sanctions activities; the ones I've listed are just the ones I know about) to contact their political representatives and ask them to speed up efforts to make this happen. I will be doing so after this writing this post (although my MP just replied to me about a previous email about Ukraine, so I'm going to continue being a massive nuisance to her).
If you feel you would like to donate to organisations helping with this catastrophe, I would mainly recommend Ukrainian ones rather than large international organisations, which have mostly been ... not great. As always, be cautious when donating your money, and don't just take my word for it: research something to make sure you are comfortable making a donation. Those listed are organisations I have either previously donated to myself, or would feel comfortable doing so in the future, but please research them for yourselves.
United 24: the main Ukrainian government fundraiser. You can specify when donating here whether your money goes towards military, humanitarian, or rebuilding aid, and
muccamukk) Razom for Ukraine: provides aid to help with the evacuation effort, including helping emergency services, providing water and hygiene supplies, and housing for those affected by the floods
UAnimals: provides aid for animals affected by the war, including the flooding, evacuating animals from the frontline (and the floods), and paying for medication, food and shelter
If you prefer to fund an international organisation, the two I've seen praised as effective by Ukrainians are Legacy of War Foundation, which works collaboratively with civilians in conflict zones to help with both urgent daily needs, and rebuilding efforts, and World Central Kitchen, which again works with local people in disaster and conflict zones to provide food for those in need.
The whole thing is just staggering in its overwhelming evil. We can't stop the floodwaters, but there are tiny things we can do to stem the tide.
no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 08:30 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2023-06-09 09:33 pm (UTC)